2022 Predictions

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Photo by Katrina Wright on Unsplash
Another trip around the sun is coming to a close for planet earth, and for the last few years I have been making predictions and holding myself accountable to them. Wow, I scored an incredible 1.5 out of 10! Now onwards to 2022 Let’s do it again and dive right in. A fun update for this year has been moving my predictions to a google sheet for public accountability. First how did I do?   😡 = -1 😓 = -.75 😅 = .5 😑 = .75 😎 = 1
1/ Twitter builds out payments into the product – launches a new creator chapter. This is more of a hope and a dream, but I think Twitter is well setup to own identity and payments. 😡 Nope. Although they did launch Twitter Blue and bought my friends company Scroll which was neat.
2/ Fractional ownership of a professional team, stadium, or individual player will be possible. This is a play on the existing token infrastructure and NFT thesis I had last year (which did not come true). 😑 Sort of. I mean its possible, but it didn’t happen. Instead we tried to buy the Constitution
3/ Bitcoin will break $30k. Bullish in this space since 2015 I see the air cover in place for institutions and private wealth managers to now take the plunge. Since there just isn’t enough to go around, I see the price moving up. 😎 Nailed it. As of this writing BTC is at $48K and this ended up happening in early Jan 2021
4/ Streaming equity – venture funds + employee stock becomes more liquid. With the advent of programs like CartaX and what I call streaming venture funds, the liquidity in private markets is going to get the foundation to grow significantly in 2021. 😓 I feel like this didn’t happen but companies like Fractional launched which is similar.
5/ The rise of operator angels + micro VCs explodes in 2021. This is already happening, but there will be an explosion of rolling funds, operator angels, and micro investors who want to co-invest in friends, companies, and cohorts they are a part of. 😑 Meh. This sort of happened. I think AngelList is leading the charge here with Rolling Funds and other products like free RUVs for companies. Maybe the founders are the micro VCs we have been waiting for?
6/ I don’t get the vaccine for COVID19 (but want too!). I think the infrastructure and operational complexity get in the way of massive rollouts for the longtail of 350mm Americans, and I don’t get it until 2022 😬 😡 Nope. I was totally wrong here. America and the world got into high gear and I got vaccinated in April 2021 and even boosted.
7/ SaaS roll-ups and micro-private equity become huge. Funds and people are looking to take a set multiple on SaaS companies and provide liquidity to founders and VCs and run the underlying companies for profit with their own infrastructure. This has been done in the past but I think its set to boom in 2021. 😑 Yes. I think this was brought to life by teams like https://microacquire.com/
8/ A proper accelerator is setup for GPs. Operating as a sort of fund-of-funds model there is an economy of scale program for figuring out the GP/LP structure, working out the services providers like legal, audit, and tax handling. There is also a network effect of portfolio companies with early GPs. Bonus: Maybe I do this 😎 😓 No, but I did hear rumblings of this happening – alas it wasn’t meant to be in 2021.
9/ Hubs vs. Offices. Deep work continues at home, while “culture days” become norm. Startups pave the way for in person only monthly, quarterly, or bi-annually and large corps have 2 day a week in offices. Many switch to the hotel or hot-desk model. 😎 Yes! Although office leases were booming in summer 2021, the flexible space, culture days, and 1-2 day a week office space is the norm.
10/ The try before you buy job economy booms. Startups are more likely to pay mercenaries with expertise (like me!) cash + stock vs. FTEs. The calculus is that if the stock is going to be worth a fortune, they are better off paying for expertise early vs. take a risk on early full time employees risking option pool, culture fit, and ramp time. 😎 Yes. I think this manifested itself in liquid teams, outlined by Packy https://www.notboring.co/p/the-cooperation-economy-
1/ Ownership of game assets becomes normal switching between games, and platforms. The underlying technology is here and in game progress should be transferrable. This makes for “taking” a game community easier, and introduces new complexity for big game studios I talked about this a bit on the Deep End from On Deck. 2/ There is no “breakout” Metaverse in 2022. This doesn’t mean there will not be in the future, but we do not find ourselves with a billion people in a leading metaverse platform. 3/ Apple acquires Peloton. Far fetched, but with a balance sheet that is gigantic and the Peloton stock around $38 ($12bln market cap) at the time of this writing, I could see this making a lot of sense.

4/ the war for the living room is won and the winner is your phone. No cable box, entertainment system or device like chrome cast or fire stick wins – it’s just your phone. Smart casting and dumb TVs become the norm. This is the sun Microsystems future we were promised but our phones are the gateway. 

5/ the US power grid becomes a focus point for conversation from a major disruption due to an attack.

6/ Apple consolidates operating systems into Apple OS across phone, tablets, desktops, and cars. A unified approach means cross platform comparability, easier subscription support, and better customer experience. 

7/ Authentication as an Experience – whether it’s a crypto wallet, physical key, or other auth method, websites and entire platform experiences are determined by a login. Much like the promise of sun Microsystems in years past, we will have dumb terminals and smart logins. Your entire experience and process will be governed by a authentication. Identities can be real or not, but if if you don’t have an auth you don’t have an experience. 

8/ Liquid Community – communities create and transact with both security and utility tokens they use to reward, incentivize, and govern their groups. If communities are a moat, now they are even more important to protect. The ebb and flow of how communities can rise (and fall) will be fascinating to watch. Game mechanics within communities will be fascinating to watch.

9/ Oxygen levels in the atmosphere will decrease by a amount that is noticeable to people. This one comes directly from a conversation I had with my father-in-law (a true scientist – professor – and more) about how global warming will continue, but this will be the first time people notice – due to the % of oxygen change.

10/ If the great resignation is upon us, where is everyone going? They are going to work for themselves. Believing in yourself has never had a higher ROI and the past year has shown me personally that this is a good investment. There is no issue with working for someone else, but the idea that you can invest in something on your own – leveling up, learning, getting certified, or other personal investment will have high returns. Thats it for now – join me on Twitter for the conversation to continue.

 

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